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Predictive Analytics

 

Project Analytics

  • Detect unusual trajectories in performance trends early on during the project development, in order to notify the project management team to anticipate productivity issues.

  • Forecast project performance trends and business success metrics.

 

 

Application: Construction Cost Forecasting 
 

  • Surprisingly, spot oil prices are not statistically correlated with neither ENR construction cost index (CCI) nor FHWA National Highway Construction Cost Index (NHCCI).

  • But these oil price provides one of the best leading indicators with the highest prediction capability to forecast future trends of construction cost (i.e., vector error correction (VEC) model including CCI (or NHCCI) and crude oil price provides outstanding forecasts for future construction cost trends). 

 

Time Series Models' Forecasts, the ENR's Forecast, & the Actual CCI

 

 

Reference:

Shahandashti, S.M., and Ashuri, B. (2013). “Forecasting ENR Construction Cost Index using Multivariate Time Series Models.” ASCE Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 139(9), 1237–1243.

 

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